Key takeaways:
GLP-1 households are projected to represent 35% of all U.S. food and beverage units sold by 2030, according to Circana’s November 2025 research.
The biggest spending drops among GLP-1 users are concentrated in savory snacks, sweets, baked goods, and sugary drinks, categories often well-represented in broad SKU portfolios.
GLP-1 users still outspend non-users overall, and many carry their health-focused habits even after they stop the medication, making them a higher-value consumer segment worth understanding now.
GLP-1 medications — glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, the class of drugs that includes Ozempic and Wegovy — have been generating a lot of noise in food industry circles. Some of that noise is warranted. Some of it is more speculation than signal.
What’s actually happening is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. And for food manufacturing leaders who are currently evaluating their SKU portfolios, deciding which products to keep, retire, reformulate, or invest in, the nuance matters.
Here’s a grounded look at what the data says, and what’s worth considering as you make those calls.
Why the scale of GLP-1 adoption is worth building into your forecasts
Start with the scale. According to Circana’s November 2025 research, 23% of U.S. households currently have at least one member using a GLP-1 medication. By 2030, households with GLP-1 users are projected to account for 35% of all food and beverage units sold.
New patient prescriptions grew 16% between September 2024 and September 2025, representing an additional 2.9 million scripts. That’s not a trend you can classify as niche or wait out.
A separate study from Cornell University, published in the Journal of Marketing Research in December 2025, put hard numbers on the behavioral changes. Within six months of starting a GLP-1, households reduced grocery spending by an average of 5.3%. Among higher-income households, that drop exceeded 8%.
The spending declines weren’t evenly distributed. Savory snacks fell around 10%, with similar decreases in sweets, baked goods, and cookies. Fast food and limited-service restaurant spending dropped roughly 8% as well.
If your portfolio is weighted toward those categories, this is relevant data for your planning conversations.
GLP-1 users are buying differently, not disappearing
GLP-1 users are buying less, but they’re not disappearing from the market. In fact, they still outspend non-users on a per-household basis.
Their basket is shifting, not emptying. Users are actively seeking products higher in protein, fiber, and healthy fats. Purchases of items high in carbohydrates and sugar are declining. Spending on produce and deli items is rising.
There’s also an important post-medication finding worth noting. Circana found that even after users stop taking GLP-1 medications — and about half of users stop within a year, primarily due to cost — some of their health-conscious behaviors persist. Produce spending, for example, continues to grow post-medication. Other behaviors, including beverages and frozen food purchases, tend to revert.
That partial persistence is meaningful. It suggests GLP-1 users aren’t just temporarily suppressed buyers. They’re going through a behavior shift that leaves a durable imprint on at least part of their purchasing, even when the medication stops.
Cornell’s research reinforced that when users stopped the medication, their overall food spending returned to pre-adoption levels, but their baskets became slightly less healthy than before they started, particularly in categories like candy and chocolate. The health gains weren’t fully permanent. But they weren’t fully erased, either.
Four places GLP-1 data should show up in your portfolio decisions
SKU rationalization is already a high-stakes exercise in most food manufacturing organizations. You’re balancing production complexity, retailer shelf space, inventory costs, and demand forecasting across a portfolio that, in many cases, has grown faster than it’s been pruned.
GLP-1 adoption adds another variable to that calculation. It’s not the only variable, or necessarily the most urgent one, but it’s a reasonable lens to apply when you’re already doing the work.
Here’s where the data is most useful:
1. Category-level exposure
If a significant portion of your revenue comes from savory snacks, confections, baked goods, or sugary beverages, you have more GLP-1 exposure than a manufacturer whose portfolio skews toward protein, produce, or functional foods. That’s worth knowing, not because those categories are immediately at risk, but because the demand trajectory is worth factoring into five-year volume assumptions.
2. The “still outspending” reality
GLP-1 users, who tend to skew toward Generation X and higher-income households (per Circana), are still buying. They’re prioritizing nutrient density and they’re willing to pay for it. Circana’s data shows a 41-point increase in GLP-1 users citing weight management as their primary health goal since 2021. These are motivated, engaged consumers.
For manufacturers with SKUs that can credibly meet those needs — higher protein content, more fiber, smaller portion formats — GLP-1 households represent a growth opportunity, not just a volume headwind.
3. Reformulation vs. rationalization
There’s a meaningful difference between retiring a SKU and reformulating it. The Cornell researchers suggested that package sizes, product formulations, and marketing strategies may all shift in response to GLP-1-driven demand changes. Not every underperforming SKU in a vulnerable category needs to be cut. Some may have a longer runway if reformulated to align with shifting nutritional priorities.
The question is whether reformulation is worth the investment given that SKU’s volume, margin contribution, and competitive position. GLP-1 data can inform that conversation, but it shouldn’t be the only input.
4. The discontinuation cycle
The Circana data also found that 50% of previous GLP-1 users are likely to restart the medication in the future. That creates a cyclical dynamic — users cycling on and off, with spending patterns shifting as they do — that complicates clean demand forecasting.
This is worth building into your planning assumptions. GLP-1 impact isn’t a one-time step-change; it’s an ongoing fluctuation across a growing consumer segment. Scenario planning that accounts for varying adoption and discontinuation rates will serve you better than assuming a static new baseline.
Three things the GLP-1 signal doesn’t justify
It’s worth being direct about what the data doesn’t support.
GLP-1 adoption is not an argument for abandoning entire categories overnight. Even with the spending declines Circana and Cornell documented, demand for snacks, baked goods, and indulgent foods hasn’t vanished. And it won’t. Cornell’s own research noted that while consumption of most processed and sugary foods drops among GLP-1 users, the desire for those foods largely doesn’t. That’s why some manufacturers are pursuing smaller portion sizes or reformulated versions of familiar products rather than exiting the category.
It’s also not a mandate for slapping “GLP-1 friendly” labels on products that haven’t changed. That approach may generate short-term shelf presence, but it’s unlikely to build durable brand equity with a consumer segment that’s genuinely health-motivated.
And it’s not a reason to make expensive portfolio decisions based on a consumer segment whose long-term size still depends on factors like drug pricing, insurance coverage, and the continued expansion of oral GLP-1 options. Adoption has grown fast. Whether it continues at the same pace is less certain.
FAQ for food manufacturing leaders
Q: How big is the GLP-1 user population right now, and how fast is it growing?
A: As of late 2025, Circana estimates that 23% of U.S. households have at least one GLP-1 user, reflecting an individual usage rate of roughly 10% to 14% of adults. New patient prescriptions grew 16% between September 2024 and September 2025. By 2030, Circana projects GLP-1 households will represent 35% of all food and beverage units sold.
Q: Which product categories are most affected by GLP-1 adoption?
A: The sharpest declines in spending among GLP-1 users are in savory snacks, sweets, baked goods, cookies, and sugary beverages. Spending on protein-rich foods, produce, and fiber-dense products is rising in the same households.
Q: Do GLP-1 users stop buying entirely, or do they just buy differently?
A: They buy differently. GLP-1 households still outspend non-users on a per-household basis, according to Circana. The shift is toward fewer calories, more nutrient density, and smaller portions, not away from the grocery store entirely.
Q: Should we be considering GLP-1 trends in SKU rationalization decisions now?
A: It’s a reasonable input, particularly for portfolios with significant exposure to snack, confection, or high-sugar beverage categories. The most practical application is in category-level volume assumptions for five-year planning, and in reformulation decisions — assessing whether a SKU has a longer runway with nutritional adjustments versus retirement.
Q: What about consumers who stop taking GLP-1 medications?
A: Circana found that about 50% of former GLP-1 users are likely to restart the medication. Some health-conscious purchasing behaviors (particularly produce) persist even after discontinuation. Others, like beverage and frozen food purchases, tend to rebound. This creates a cyclical pattern rather than a permanent step-change.
Q: How do we build GLP-1 assumptions into demand forecasting when adoption rates are still fluctuating?
A: Scenario-based planning is the most defensible approach. Rather than assuming a fixed adoption rate, model a range — conservative, moderate, and accelerated GLP-1 adoption scenarios — and assess how each affects volume forecasts in your most exposed categories. This allows you to set thresholds that would trigger reformulation or rationalization decisions, without making those calls prematurely.
